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Mark J. Machina Department
of Economics (858) 534-2391 |
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Surveys, Discussions and Encyclopedia Articles
“Decision
Making in the Presence of Risk” Science
(May 1, 1987) (reprinted in...)
“Choice
under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved” Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer
1987) (reprinted in...)
“Information
and Decision Making” (with Robin Hogarth, Kenneth MacCrimmon, John
Roberts, Alvin Roth, Paul Slovic & Richard Thaler) Report of the Working Group on Information and Decision Making for the
National Research Council’s Ten-Year Outlook on Research Opportunities in
the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1985 (reprinted in...)
“States
of the World and the State of Decision Theory” in The Economics of Risk, ed. by D. Meyer,
2003
“Choice
under Uncertainty” in Encyclopedia
of Cognitive Science, ed. by Lynn Nadel, 2005
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory” in Encyclopedia
of Actuarial Science, ed. by J. Teugels and B. Sundt, 2004
“Non-Expected Utility Theory” in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by William Darity, Jr.
“Expected
Utility Hypothesis” in The
New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N.
Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume (1st edition version reprinted in...)
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory” in The
New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N.
Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume
“Risk” (with
Michael Rothschild) in The New Palgrave
Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and
Lawrence E. Blume (1st edition version reprinted in...)
Robustifying the Classical
Theory of Risk Preferences and Beliefs (my primary research agenda)
· Robustifying
the Analytics of the Objective Expected Utility Model:
“ ‘Expected
Utility’ Analysis without the Independence Axiom” Econometrica (March 1982) (reprinted in...)
“Comparative
Statics and Non-Expected Utility Preferences” Journal of Economic Theory (April 1989)
“Non-Expected
Utility and the Robustness of the Classical Insurance Paradigm” Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory
(June 1995) (reprinted in...)
· Robustifying
the Classical Characterization of Subjective Probability:
“A
More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability” (with David
Schmeidler) Econometrica (July
1992)
(reprinted in...)
“Bayes
without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice” (with David
Schmeidler) Journal of Economic Theory
(October 1995) (reprinted in...)
· Robustifying
the Choice-Theoretic Foundations of Objective Uncertainty:
“Almost-Objective
Uncertainty” Economic Theory
(July 2004)
· Robustifying
the Analytics of the Subjective Expected Utility Model:
“ ‘Expected
Utility/Subjective Probability’ Analysis without the Sure-Thing Principle
or Probabilistic Sophistication” Economic
Theory
(July
2005)
Rational Choice under
Uncertainty
“Dynamic
Consistency and Non-Expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty” Journal of Economic Literature (December
1989) (reprinted in...)
“Bounded
Rationality Modeling” (with Bertrand Munier, Reinhard Selten, D.
Bouyssou, P. Bourgine, R. Day, N. Harvey, D. Hilton,
Ph. Parker, J. Sterman, E. Weber, B. Wernerfelt & R. Wensley) Marketing Letters (August 1999)
Analysis of
Non-Expected Utility Risk Preferences
“A
Stronger Characterization of Declining Risk Aversion” Econometrica (July 1982)
“Generalized
Expected Utility Analysis and the Nature of Observed Violations of the
Independence Axiom” in Foundations
of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, ed. by B. Stigum and F.
Wenstøp, 1983 (reprinted in...)
“Attitudes
Toward Risk: Further Remarks” (with Hans Binswanger and Jaime
Quizon) Economic Journal (March 1984)
“Temporal
Risk and the Nature of Induced Preferences” Journal of Economic Theory (August 1984)
“Stochastic
Choice Functions Generated from Deterministic Preferences over Lotteries” Economic Journal (September 1985) (reprinted in...)
“The
Ross Characterization of Risk Aversion: Strengthening and Extension” (with
William Neilson) Econometrica
(September 1987)
“Cardinal
Properties of ‘Local Utility Functions’ ” in Risk, Decision and Rationality, ed. by
Bertrand Munier, 1988
“Two
Errors in the ‘Allais Impossibility Theorem’” Theory and Decision (May 1995) (“The
Two Errors: A Summary”)
“Payoff
Kinks in Preferences over Lotteries” Journal
of Risk and Uncertainty (November 2001)
“Risk,
Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms” American Economic Review (in press)
Other Topics in Risk
and Risk Aversion
“On
Path Independent Randomized Choice” (with Robert Parks) Econometrica (September 1981)
“Rational
Decision Making vs. Rational Decision Modeling?” Journal of Mathematical Psychology
(October 1981) (reprinted in...)
“Flexibility
and the Demand for Risky Assets” Economics
Letters (Vol. 10, 1982)
“The
Incentive Implications of Incomplete Insurance: The Multiplicative Case” (with
Takatoshi Ito) Economics Letters
(Vol. 13, 1983)
“Moment
Preferences and Polynomial Utility” (with Sigrid Müller) Economics Letters (Vol. 23, 1987)
“Increasing
Risk: Some Direct Constructions” (with John Pratt) Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (March
1997)
Econometrics
“Forecasting
and Decision Theory” (with Clive Granger) in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1, ed. by Graham Elliott,
Clive Granger and Allan Timmermann, 2006
“Structural
Attribution of Observed Volatility Clustering” (with Clive
Granger) Journal of Econometrics (November-December
2006)
Economic History
“On
the Profitability of Russian Serfdom” (with Evsey Domar) Journal of Economic History (December
1984) (reprinted in...)
News, Gossip &
Games
“Clive
& Rob’s Excellent Adventure” (An account of the 2003 Nobel Prize
Ceremonies)
“Barrett
and Arntzenius’s Infinite Decision Puzzle” Theory and Decision (November 2000)
Machina's
Unceasingly Repeated Errors or Contradictions (as
dispassionately reported by Maurice Allais)
(Machina's
Paralogisms, Sophisms, Mistakes and Contradictions)
Photos of Mark
with some of his Heroes, Friends and Colleagues