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Mark J. Machina Department
of Economics (858) 534-2391 |
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Surveys, Discussions and Encyclopedia Articles
“Decision
Making in the Presence of Risk” Science
(May 1, 1987) (reprinted in...)
“Choice
under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved” Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1987) (reprinted in...)
“Information
and Decision Making” (with Robin Hogarth, Kenneth MacCrimmon, John Roberts,
Alvin Roth, Paul Slovic & Richard Thaler) Report of the Working Group on Information and Decision Making for the
National Research Council’s Ten-Year Outlook on Research Opportunities in
the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1985 (reprinted in...)
“States
of the World and the State of Decision Theory” in The Economics of Risk, ed. by D. Meyer, 2003
“Choice
under Uncertainty” in Encyclopedia of
Cognitive Science, ed. by Lynn Nadel, 2005
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory” in Encyclopedia of
Actuarial Science, ed. by J. Teugels and B. Sundt, 2004
“Non-Expected Utility Theory” in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by William Darity, Jr.
“Expected
Utility Hypothesis” in The New Palgrave
Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and
Lawrence E. Blume (1st edition version reprinted in...)
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory” in The New Palgrave
Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and
Lawrence E. Blume
“Risk” (with Michael Rothschild)
in The New Palgrave Dictionary of
Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E.
Blume (1st edition version reprinted in...)
Robustifying the Classical Theory of
Risk Preferences and Beliefs (my primary research agenda)
· Robustifying the
Analytics of the Objective Expected Utility Model:
“ ‘Expected
Utility’ Analysis without the Independence Axiom” Econometrica (March 1982) (reprinted in...)
“Comparative
Statics and Non-Expected Utility Preferences” Journal of Economic Theory (April 1989)
“Non-Expected
Utility and the Robustness of the Classical Insurance Paradigm” Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory
(June 1995) (reprinted in...)
· Robustifying the
Classical Characterization of Subjective Probability:
“A
More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability” (with David Schmeidler) Econometrica (July 1992) (reprinted in...)
“Bayes
without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice” (with David Schmeidler) Journal of Economic Theory (October
1995) (reprinted in...)
· Robustifying the
Choice-Theoretic Foundations of Objective Uncertainty:
“Almost-Objective
Uncertainty” Economic Theory (July 2004)
· Robustifying the
Analytics of the Subjective Expected Utility Model:
“ ‘Expected
Utility/Subjective Probability’ Analysis without the Sure-Thing Principle
or Probabilistic Sophistication” Economic
Theory
(July 2005)
Rational Choice under Uncertainty
“Dynamic
Consistency and Non-Expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty” Journal of Economic Literature (December 1989) (reprinted in...)
“Bounded
Rationality Modeling” (with Bertrand Munier, Reinhard Selten, D. Bouyssou, P.
Bourgine, R. Day, N. Harvey, D. Hilton,
Ph. Parker, J. Sterman, E. Weber, B. Wernerfelt & R. Wensley) Marketing Letters (August 1999)
Analysis of Non-Expected Utility
Risk Preferences
“A
Stronger Characterization of Declining Risk Aversion” Econometrica (July 1982)
“Generalized
Expected Utility Analysis and the Nature of Observed Violations of the
Independence Axiom” in Foundations of
Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, ed. by B. Stigum and F.
Wenstøp, 1983 (reprinted in...)
“Attitudes
Toward Risk: Further Remarks” (with Hans Binswanger and Jaime Quizon) Economic Journal (March 1984)
“Temporal
Risk and the Nature of Induced Preferences” Journal of Economic Theory (August 1984)
“Stochastic
Choice Functions Generated from Deterministic Preferences over Lotteries” Economic Journal (September 1985) (reprinted in...)
“The
Ross Characterization of Risk Aversion: Strengthening and Extension” (with William Neilson) Econometrica (September 1987)
“Cardinal
Properties of ‘Local Utility Functions’ ” in Risk, Decision and Rationality, ed. by Bertrand Munier, 1988
“Two
Errors in the ‘Allais Impossibility Theorem’” Theory and Decision (May 1995) (“The
Two Errors: A Summary”)
“Payoff
Kinks in Preferences over Lotteries” Journal of
Risk and Uncertainty (November 2001)
“Risk,
Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms” American Economic Review (in press)
Other Topics in Risk and Risk
Aversion
“On
Path Independent Randomized Choice” (with Robert Parks) Econometrica (September 1981)
“Rational
Decision Making vs. Rational Decision Modeling?” Journal of Mathematical Psychology (October 1981) (reprinted in...)
“Flexibility
and the Demand for Risky Assets” Economics
Letters (Vol. 10, 1982)
“The
Incentive Implications of Incomplete Insurance: The Multiplicative Case” (with Takatoshi Ito) Economics Letters (Vol. 13, 1983)
“Moment
Preferences and Polynomial Utility” (with Sigrid Müller) Economics Letters (Vol. 23, 1987)
“Increasing
Risk: Some Direct Constructions” (with John Pratt) Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (March 1997)
Econometrics
“Forecasting
and Decision Theory” (with Clive Granger) in Handbook
of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1, ed. by Graham Elliott, Clive Granger and
Allan Timmermann, 2006
“Structural
Attribution of Observed Volatility Clustering” (with Clive Granger) Journal of Econometrics (November-December
2006)
Economic History
“On
the Profitability of Russian Serfdom” (with Evsey Domar) Journal of Economic History (December 1984) (reprinted in...)
News, Gossip & Games
“Clive
& Rob’s Excellent Adventure” (An account of the 2003 Nobel Prize Ceremonies)
“Barrett
and Arntzenius’s Infinite Decision Puzzle” Theory and Decision (November 2000)
Machina's
Unceasingly Repeated Errors or Contradictions (as dispassionately
reported by Maurice Allais)
(Machina's
Paralogisms, Sophisms, Mistakes and Contradictions)
Photos of Mark with some of his Heroes,
Friends and Colleagues