"Will Vote by Mail Elections Increase Turnout?

Evidence from California Counties

by Thad Kousser, UC San Diego

and Megan Mullin, Temple University

Here is the report that we have distributed to California elections officials and other policymakers. 

Here is a more technical version of our analysis, which is forthcoming in the Fall 2007 issue of Political Analysis. 

Executive Summary

          Advocates of mail ballot elections predict that they will produce higher turnout and allow voters to become more informed.  Our study tests these predictions by taking advantage of a “natural experiment” in which many California voters are assigned to vote by mail because they live in less populous precincts.  By matching these mail ballot precincts with traditional polling place precincts that contain voters with similar demographic characteristics, we are able to observe the effects of voting by mail on comparable groups of voters taking part in the same elections.  We find that:

·          Voting by mail does not increase turnout in presidential and gubernatorial general elections.  In fact, turnout was 2.6 to 2.9 percentage points lower in mail ballot precincts, according to our analysis of two general elections held in representative samples of 18 and 9 counties.

·          Voters who cast their ballots by mail in general elections are more likely to skip downballot races, another finding that runs counter to the expectations of vote-by-mail advocates.

·          However, voting by mail appeared to bring an average 7.6 percentage point turnout increase in local special elections, which have much lower participation rates overall.  This analysis is based on recent elections held in three counties.

·          Running elections by mail offers other potential costs and benefits apart from its effects on political participation, according to our interviews with California registrars and review of vote-by-mail elections across the country.  These other impacts include potential costs savings, effects on fraud, and access for disabled voters.

We would like to thank the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation for supporting this project, many county election officials for their observations and data, the Statewide Database’s Karin MacDonald for bringing mail ballot precincts to our attention and Anup Pradhan for providing demographic data, and Sam Deddeh, Mike Binder, Krishan Banwait, and Thurman Wise for research assistance.